Shifting Attitudes in the Muslim World ?
What happens to al Qaeda's popularity when their victims are not primarily Jews or Americans?
From a Michael Barone US News and World Report piece last week, quoting a recent poll from the Pew Global Attitutes Project.
"Most important, support for terrorism in defense of Islam has "declined dramatically," in the Pew report's words, in Muslim countries, except in Jordan (which has a Palestinian majority) and Turkey, where support has remained a low 14 percent. It has fallen in Indonesia (from 27 to 15 percent since 2002), Pakistan (from 41 to 25 percent since 2004), Morocco (from 40 to 13 percent since 2004), and among Muslims in Lebanon (from 73 to 26 percent since 2002). Support for suicide bombings against Americans in Iraq has also declined. The percentage reporting some confidence in Osama bin Laden is now under 10 percent in Lebanon and Turkey and has fallen sharply in Indonesia "
So, while anger and criticism about the war in Iraq seems to be escalating in the US, the discussion in the Middle East and the larger Muslim world is quite different. And, it is interesting that the largest drop in support for terrorism has occurred in Lebanon, a country that has arguably seen the most significant moves towards Democracy in the Middle East since 2002.
More from Barone's article:
"Muslims around the world cannot help but notice that Iraq is moving, however imperfectly, toward representative government. They can't have missed the "Cedar Revolution" in Lebanon and the expulsion of Syrian forces from Beirut. They may have noticed the small concessions to democracy in Saudi Arabia."
And the "Arab Street"? Is the talk of the evils of Sharon and Bush, and western imperialism?
Not exclusively:
"They may also have noticed that Egypt will have its first contested election for president this year. "There were no arguments over the United States, Israel, Palestine, Iraq, or any of the other 'hot spots' that used to dominate every meal and spill over into tea, coffee, and dessert," writes Mona Eltahawy in the Washington Post of her trip to Egypt this summer. "This time, all conversations were about a small but active opposition movement in Egypt that since December has focused on ending the dictatorship of President Hosni Mubarak. I have never heard so many relatives and friends take such an interest in Egyptian politics or--more important--feel that they had a stake in them."
Every IED or suicide bomb exploded in Baghdad, particularly ones targeting and killing Muslim civilians, offers moderate Muslims around the world an opportunity to consider their own future, and the future for their children.
In 2002, unhappy with their own governments, and shamed by decades, centuries of cultural and economic stagnation, many Muslims looked to bin Laden and al Qaeda with hope and pride, as gallant "anti-heros", ready to defeat the western "infidel", the hated Jews, and even their own corrupt and decadent leaders.
Even moderate in the Arab/Islamic world celebrated the deaths of 3000 Americans on 9/11, an attitude that is clearly reflected in the 2002 Poll numbers shown above. Once again, in 2002, "73%" of Lebanese polled "supported terrorism in defense of Islam".
But that was three years ago.
So while most Arabs and Muslims do not look to the US as a savior, they seem to have a clearer understanding what "terrorism in defense of Islam" really means. And, they understand that instead of choosing between Islamic fundamentalism or the repressive status quo in their own countries, they may just have a third choice - democratic reforms.
We'll see what the polling numbers look like in three more years.
From a Michael Barone US News and World Report piece last week, quoting a recent poll from the Pew Global Attitutes Project.
"Most important, support for terrorism in defense of Islam has "declined dramatically," in the Pew report's words, in Muslim countries, except in Jordan (which has a Palestinian majority) and Turkey, where support has remained a low 14 percent. It has fallen in Indonesia (from 27 to 15 percent since 2002), Pakistan (from 41 to 25 percent since 2004), Morocco (from 40 to 13 percent since 2004), and among Muslims in Lebanon (from 73 to 26 percent since 2002). Support for suicide bombings against Americans in Iraq has also declined. The percentage reporting some confidence in Osama bin Laden is now under 10 percent in Lebanon and Turkey and has fallen sharply in Indonesia "
So, while anger and criticism about the war in Iraq seems to be escalating in the US, the discussion in the Middle East and the larger Muslim world is quite different. And, it is interesting that the largest drop in support for terrorism has occurred in Lebanon, a country that has arguably seen the most significant moves towards Democracy in the Middle East since 2002.
More from Barone's article:
"Muslims around the world cannot help but notice that Iraq is moving, however imperfectly, toward representative government. They can't have missed the "Cedar Revolution" in Lebanon and the expulsion of Syrian forces from Beirut. They may have noticed the small concessions to democracy in Saudi Arabia."
And the "Arab Street"? Is the talk of the evils of Sharon and Bush, and western imperialism?
Not exclusively:
"They may also have noticed that Egypt will have its first contested election for president this year. "There were no arguments over the United States, Israel, Palestine, Iraq, or any of the other 'hot spots' that used to dominate every meal and spill over into tea, coffee, and dessert," writes Mona Eltahawy in the Washington Post of her trip to Egypt this summer. "This time, all conversations were about a small but active opposition movement in Egypt that since December has focused on ending the dictatorship of President Hosni Mubarak. I have never heard so many relatives and friends take such an interest in Egyptian politics or--more important--feel that they had a stake in them."
Every IED or suicide bomb exploded in Baghdad, particularly ones targeting and killing Muslim civilians, offers moderate Muslims around the world an opportunity to consider their own future, and the future for their children.
In 2002, unhappy with their own governments, and shamed by decades, centuries of cultural and economic stagnation, many Muslims looked to bin Laden and al Qaeda with hope and pride, as gallant "anti-heros", ready to defeat the western "infidel", the hated Jews, and even their own corrupt and decadent leaders.
Even moderate in the Arab/Islamic world celebrated the deaths of 3000 Americans on 9/11, an attitude that is clearly reflected in the 2002 Poll numbers shown above. Once again, in 2002, "73%" of Lebanese polled "supported terrorism in defense of Islam".
But that was three years ago.
So while most Arabs and Muslims do not look to the US as a savior, they seem to have a clearer understanding what "terrorism in defense of Islam" really means. And, they understand that instead of choosing between Islamic fundamentalism or the repressive status quo in their own countries, they may just have a third choice - democratic reforms.
We'll see what the polling numbers look like in three more years.
posted by paul at 1:57 PM
2 Comments:
Hadn't heard the consensus, so it's good to know...
>spill over into tea, coffee, and dessert
I'm not usually this direct in saying, but...
Somehow, having your building fall into your desert can really change the topic of the day.
Intentional pun? (desert/dessert)
Well done if so.
Funny how, with all of the talk over the last few years of winning "hearts and minds" in the Muslim world, these statistics have not gotten more press. Again, it is not important whether they choose to "like" the US (or Israel), just that they choose to disown terrorism. This seems like a significant move in that direction.
building falling into their desert/dessert - very visual. heh.
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