Iraq - The Pendulum Swings
The pendulum swings. Or maybe, the river flows.
The re-election of George Bush (as well as Tony Blair and Australia's John Howard) was seen as a general endorsement, by the average voter in the west, of the war in Iraq, and the larger war against Islamic extremists. The Iraqi election in January, where 8 million Iraqis bravely "gave the finger" (the purple stamped voting index finger that is) to the terrorists, may have been the high water mark for public opinion about the war, and was a hopeful sign for Iraq's future. Subsequent events, such as Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon further buoyed hopes for peace and freedom in the Middle East. That was all in the spring.
It is now almost Labor Day. Lebanon and Syria are no longer in the news. London has been attacked, and the British public seems to consider Tony Blair the culprit, not the extremists that built and detonated the bombs. Violence continues in Iraq, with horrific bombings targeted primarily at Iraqi civilians and security forces, resulting in hundreds of deaths. Iraq's drafting of a constitution, and their progress towards autonomy, has seemingly stalled. Public opinion has turned against the war, and moves towards favoring a Vietnam-style US withdrawal.
In March, the anti-war left, as well as "paleo-conservatives" such as Pat Buchannan, seemed to be fighting a losing battle. Now, in August, the American people are starting to listen to them, or are at least starting to weary of news of young American soldiers dying for the freedom of a people that do not seem to want freedom themselves.
It is honestly difficult to be a supporter of the war under these circumstances, just as it may have been difficult to have opposed the war as Sadaam's statue was being pulled down in Baghdad, or as the Iraqis entered their polling stations.
But, without trying to grasp at straws, I do believe, for the most part, that things are never as good as they seem, and they are never as bad as they seem.
The violence and hopelessness that seems to predominate in Iraq today will give way to the same force - a desire for freedom and peace - that brought millions out of their homes in January, in defiance of the terrorists. The hatred and fear that fuels terrorism will then, again, predictably, defy this hope. The pendulum will swing back and forth.
On second thought, pendulums do not advance. They mark time, they are predictable, but they do not progress. .
Heraclitus said, centuries ago, "You cannot step into the same river twice". Life changes, what you see and understand today will not be the same as what you see or try to understand tomorrow. Life, like a river, can be unpredictable, but it is inevitable.
It has only been six months since the hope of an "Arab Spring" seemed real and imminent, but the river flows. We now have a different Iraq. In another six months, we will have another Iraq. A year from then, yet another.
The struggle for freedom and democracy against oppression and tyranny is not a zero-sum game. It is not measured in equal parts like the swing of a pendulum. It is Heraclitus' river, unpredictable but moving forward, progressing.
We are in the rapids currently, but just around the bend....
The re-election of George Bush (as well as Tony Blair and Australia's John Howard) was seen as a general endorsement, by the average voter in the west, of the war in Iraq, and the larger war against Islamic extremists. The Iraqi election in January, where 8 million Iraqis bravely "gave the finger" (the purple stamped voting index finger that is) to the terrorists, may have been the high water mark for public opinion about the war, and was a hopeful sign for Iraq's future. Subsequent events, such as Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon further buoyed hopes for peace and freedom in the Middle East. That was all in the spring.
It is now almost Labor Day. Lebanon and Syria are no longer in the news. London has been attacked, and the British public seems to consider Tony Blair the culprit, not the extremists that built and detonated the bombs. Violence continues in Iraq, with horrific bombings targeted primarily at Iraqi civilians and security forces, resulting in hundreds of deaths. Iraq's drafting of a constitution, and their progress towards autonomy, has seemingly stalled. Public opinion has turned against the war, and moves towards favoring a Vietnam-style US withdrawal.
In March, the anti-war left, as well as "paleo-conservatives" such as Pat Buchannan, seemed to be fighting a losing battle. Now, in August, the American people are starting to listen to them, or are at least starting to weary of news of young American soldiers dying for the freedom of a people that do not seem to want freedom themselves.
It is honestly difficult to be a supporter of the war under these circumstances, just as it may have been difficult to have opposed the war as Sadaam's statue was being pulled down in Baghdad, or as the Iraqis entered their polling stations.
But, without trying to grasp at straws, I do believe, for the most part, that things are never as good as they seem, and they are never as bad as they seem.
The violence and hopelessness that seems to predominate in Iraq today will give way to the same force - a desire for freedom and peace - that brought millions out of their homes in January, in defiance of the terrorists. The hatred and fear that fuels terrorism will then, again, predictably, defy this hope. The pendulum will swing back and forth.
On second thought, pendulums do not advance. They mark time, they are predictable, but they do not progress. .
Heraclitus said, centuries ago, "You cannot step into the same river twice". Life changes, what you see and understand today will not be the same as what you see or try to understand tomorrow. Life, like a river, can be unpredictable, but it is inevitable.
It has only been six months since the hope of an "Arab Spring" seemed real and imminent, but the river flows. We now have a different Iraq. In another six months, we will have another Iraq. A year from then, yet another.
The struggle for freedom and democracy against oppression and tyranny is not a zero-sum game. It is not measured in equal parts like the swing of a pendulum. It is Heraclitus' river, unpredictable but moving forward, progressing.
We are in the rapids currently, but just around the bend....
posted by paul at 12:48 PM
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